Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim: preview and prediction
Preview
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim is on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). Werder Bremen are seventh with 12 points, Hoffenheim tenth with 9. Werder Bremen won 3-2 away at Mainz, while Hoffenheim won 3-0 at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeWerder Bremen | AwayHoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th12 points | 10th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–1 | 3–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 15–142.1–2.0 per match | 14–142.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 5in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Werder Bremen: both teams scored in all seven games
Three wins, three draws and one defeat, 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home Werder Bremen have taken 7 points in three games, away 5 in four. They won 3-2 away at Mainz. Both teams scored in all seven games and six finished with at least three goals.
Hoffenheim: at least three goals in all seven games
Three wins and four defeats, 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home Hoffenheim have taken 6 points in four games, away 3 in three. They won 3-0 at home to Bayer Leverkusen. All seven games have had at least three goals, and in six both teams scored.
What to expect
The model gives Werder Bremen 45% and Hoffenheim 34%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.8. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (8%) and 2-2 and 1-2 (7%): at 3.9 expected goals in total it is the highest-scoring game of the round. Over 2.5 is at 74%, both teams to score at 73%; a clean sheet for Werder Bremen is rated at 17%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
73% estimated probability
The model gives 73% to Both teams to score, meaning both teams score. Both teams scored in seven of seven games for Werder Bremen and in six of seven for Hoffenheim; the expected goals are 3.9.
Did not come true
X2
Hoffenheim win or draw
55% estimated probability
The model gives 55% to X2, meaning Hoffenheim win or draw. It gives 34% to a Hoffenheim win, 21% to the draw and 45% to a Werder Bremen win.
Did not come true
X2 & Over 2.5
Hoffenheim avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to X2 & Over 2.5: Hoffenheim avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total. It rates Hoffenheim at 1.8 goals and the total at 3.9; 74% goes to at least 3 goals.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.