Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sun 1 Nov · 15:30 (Italian time)
Union Berlin vs Cologne: preview and prediction
Preview
Union Berlin, 17th on 6 points, need a win to get out of the danger zone. After a 1-1 draw at Augsburg they host a Cologne side 12th on 8 who drew 0-0 with Schalke 04. The visitors have an obvious limit: all their points have come at home.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeUnion Berlin | AwayCologne |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th6 points | 12th8 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–3–3 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 6–180.9–2.6 per match | 8–111.1–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 3 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Union Berlin: 18 goals conceded, a defence to fix
Union Berlin suffer at the back: 18 goals conceded in seven games. Three draws keep their position alive and they have taken 5 points from four home games, something to build on. The 1-1 draw at Augsburg is a small encouraging sign.
Cologne: no points from three away games
Cologne are a home side: 8 points from four home games and zero from three away. The 0-0 draw with Schalke 04 confirms an attack that is not explosive, with 8 goals in seven games. Travelling is their real test.
What to expect
The model gives Cologne 42% and Union Berlin 34%, with the draw at 25% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 and 0-1 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 58%; a clean sheet for Cologne is rated at 26%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Union Berlin vs Cologne · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Union Berlin to score
At least one goal for Union Berlin
74% estimated probability
The model expects 1.4 goals from Union Berlin and gives 74% to at least one: at home they know how to cause danger.
Came true
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model expects 2.9 goals in total and gives 55% to at least 3: four of Union Berlin’s seven games have passed that mark.
Did not come true
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs at least 2 goals in the first half, at 37%. Union Berlin have conceded 18 and the game could open up early.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.