Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig: preview and prediction
Preview
Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig is on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). Schalke 04 are 16th with 6 points, the visitors RB Leipzig sixth with 12. Schalke 04 drew 0-0 away at Cologne, while RB Leipzig won 4-0 at home to Elversberg.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSchalke 04 | AwayRB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th6 points | 6th12 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–3–3 | 4–0–3 |
| Goals for–against | 4–70.6–1.0 per match | 20–112.9–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 3 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
The analysis
Schalke 04: four goals scored in seven games
One win, three draws and three defeats, 4 goals scored and 7 conceded: the worst attack in the league and the third-best defence. At home they have taken 2 points in three games, away 4 in four. They drew 0-0 away at Cologne. Three of their seven games have had at least three goals, and on three occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
RB Leipzig: no points from three away games
Four wins and three defeats, 20 goals scored and 11 conceded: the second-best attack in the league. At home RB Leipzig have taken 12 points in four games, away none in three. They won 4-0 at home to Elversberg. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals, and on four occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives RB Leipzig 51% and Schalke 04 25%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 0-1 and 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 54%; a clean sheet for RB Leipzig is rated at 33%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
RB Leipzig win or draw
75% estimated probability
The model gives 75% to X2, meaning RB Leipzig win or draw. It gives 51% to a RB Leipzig win and 24% to the draw, while Schalke 04 have the worst attack in the league with 4 goals.
Came true
2
RB Leipzig win
51% estimated probability
The model gives 51% to 2, meaning a RB Leipzig win. It rates RB Leipzig at 1.7 goals and Schalke 04 at 1.1; RB Leipzig have scored 20 goals in seven games.
Came true
X2 & Over 2.5
RB Leipzig avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to X2 & Over 2.5: RB Leipzig avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total. It puts at least 3 goals at 52% and the expected total at 2.8.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.