Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: preview and prediction
Preview
This is the Bundesliga’s big game: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are level at the top on 17 points and still unbeaten. On one side the best attack in the league, with 25 goals; on the other the best defence, with 4 conceded. Bayern come off a 3-1 win at Freiburg, Dortmund off a 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. All the ingredients for a great game are there.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBayern Munich | AwayBorussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st17 points | 2nd17 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–2–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Goals for–against | 25–63.6–0.9 per match | 12–41.7–0.6 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 8in 4 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
The analysis
Bayern Munich: the best attack, still unbeaten
Bayern Munich have the best attack and the second-best defence in the league: 25 goals scored and 6 conceded in seven games. Five wins, two draws and the 3-1 win at Freiburg confirm a team in full control. They have won every home game, with 9 points from three.
Borussia Dortmund: the best defence, five clean sheets
Borussia Dortmund have built their place at the top on defence: 4 goals conceded and five clean sheets in seven games. They are less prolific in attack, with 12 goals, but the 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt sums up their solidity. Away from home they have taken 7 points from three games.
What to expect
The model gives Bayern Munich 63% and Borussia Dortmund 16%, with the draw at 21% and 2.0 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 2-0 and 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 and 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 52%; a clean sheet for Bayern Munich is rated at 40%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund score at most once
77% estimated probability
Borussia Dortmund score few and the model expects 0.9 from them: 77% goes to the visitors scoring at most once.
Did not come true
1X & Under 3.5
Bayern Munich avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
The model gives 63% to Bayern Munich and 21% to the draw: 54% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat with at most 3 goals.
Did not come true
Total goals 1-2
From 1 to 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick imagines a locked game, with 1 or 2 goals in total, at 38%. The best defence in the league can slow even the best attack.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.