Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: preview and prediction
Preview
Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart is on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). Bayer Leverkusen are fourth with 13 points, Stuttgart 15th with 6. Bayer Leverkusen lost 3-0 away to Hoffenheim, Stuttgart 3-2 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBayer Leverkusen | AwayStuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th13 points | 15th6 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–2 | 2–0–5 |
| Goals for–against | 16–122.3–1.7 per match | 10–131.4–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Bayer Leverkusen: nine points from three home games
Four wins, one draw and two defeats, 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home Bayer Leverkusen have taken 9 points in three games, away 4 in four. They lost 3-0 away to Hoffenheim. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals, and on two occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
Stuttgart: five defeats in seven games
Two wins and five defeats, 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home Stuttgart have taken 3 points in three games, away 3 in four. They come off a 3-2 home defeat by Borussia Mönchengladbach. Four of their seven games have had at least three goals, and in four both teams scored.
What to expect
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 58% and Stuttgart 22%, with the draw at 20% and 2.2 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 and 3-1 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 68%, both teams to score at 65%; a clean sheet for Bayer Leverkusen is rated at 27%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
The model gives 72% to Total goals 2-5, meaning from 2 to 5 goals in total. It rates Bayer Leverkusen at 2.2 goals and Stuttgart at 1.3, 3.5 in total, and gives 87% to at least two goals overall.
Did not come true
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
The model gives 56% to Both teams score & Over 2.5: both teams score and at least 3 goals in total. The estimate is 65% for both teams scoring and 68% for at least 3 goals in total.
Came true
Stuttgart 2+ goals
Stuttgart score at least twice
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to Stuttgart 2+ goals: Stuttgart score at least two goals. Stuttgart have scored 10 goals in seven games and Bayer Leverkusen have conceded 12.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.