Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn: preview and prediction
Preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn is on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts are 18th with 3 points and 22 goals conceded, Paderborn 13th with 8. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3-2 away at Stuttgart, Paderborn 1-0 at home to Hamburg.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBorussia Mönchengladbach | AwayPaderborn |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th3 points | 13th8 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–0–6 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 11–221.6–3.1 per match | 6–90.9–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 0in 3 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach: 22 goals conceded in seven games
One win and six defeats, 11 goals scored and 22 conceded: the most-beaten defence in the league. At home they have taken no points in three games, away 3 in four. They won 3-2 away at Stuttgart. All seven games have had at least three goals.
Paderborn: six goals scored in seven games
Two wins, two draws and three defeats, 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home Paderborn have taken 6 points in four games, away 2 in three. They won 1-0 at home to Hamburg. Three of their seven games have had at least three goals, and in two both teams scored.
What to expect
The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% and Paderborn 36%, with the draw at 24% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) and 1-0 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 62%; a clean sheet for Borussia Mönchengladbach is rated at 23%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
12
No draw
76% estimated probability
The model gives 76% to 12, that is no draw. It gives 24% to the draw, 40% to a Borussia Mönchengladbach win and 36% to a Paderborn win.
Did not come true
Paderborn under 1.5 goals
Paderborn score at most once
56% estimated probability
The model gives 56% to Paderborn under 1.5 goals: Paderborn score at most one goal. They have scored 6 goals in seven games, 0.9 a game, while the model rates them at 1.5.
Came true
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to Both teams to score: no, meaning at least one team fails to score. Only two of the seven games played by Paderborn have seen both teams score, and Paderborn have scored 6 goals in all.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.