Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sun 1 Nov · 17:30 (Italian time)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg: preview and prediction
Preview
Eintracht Frankfurt are after vital points against Hamburg. The hosts are 14th on 8 points and come off a 1-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund; Hamburg are 11th on 9 and lost by the same score at Paderborn. Two teams that concede a lot, both needing a reaction.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeEintracht Frankfurt | AwayHamburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th8 points | 11th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–3 | 3–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 10–171.4–2.4 per match | 6–160.9–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt: 17 goals conceded in seven games
Eintracht Frankfurt give up too much: 17 goals conceded in seven games and just one clean sheet. At home they have taken 4 points from three games, and the 1-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund told us little. Five of seven games have had at least three goals.
Hamburg: six goals scored in seven games
Hamburg’s problem is up front: 6 goals in seven games, against 16 conceded. Three wins and four defeats keep them mid-table, but away from home they have taken only 3 points from four games.
What to expect
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt 57% and Hamburg 22%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 and 1-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 61%; a clean sheet for Eintracht Frankfurt is rated at 30%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw
78% estimated probability
The model gives 57% to Eintracht and 21% to the draw: 78% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat, against a Hamburg side who struggle away.
Came true
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model gives 55% to a game with 1 to 3 goals: Hamburg score few and both teams have scored in just two of their games.
Did not come true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick goes against the 3.3 goals expected: at most 2 goals, at 37%. Hamburg’s mere 6 goals are what support it.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.