La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun 8 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Atlético Madrid, second on 28 points and with the third-best attack and the best defence in the league, host leaders Barcelona, on 30 and with the best attack in the league, on Sunday at 21:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 win at Levante and have won their last five games, the visitors a 6-1 home win over Alavés.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAtlético Madrid | AwayBarcelona |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd28 points | 1st30 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 9–1–1 | 10–0–1 |
| Goals for–against | 22–82.0–0.7 per match | 46–124.2–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 13in 5 matches | 15in 6 matches |
| Points away | 15in 6 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 11 | 10 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 11 | 7 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 6 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
The analysis
Atlético Madrid: the best defence in the league
Atlético Madrid have nine wins, one draw and one defeat, with 22 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 15 from six. Seven of their 11 games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in four; they have six clean sheets. Last time out they won 2-0 at Levante, and they have won all of their last five games.
Barcelona: the best attack in the league
Barcelona have ten wins and one defeat, with no draws, 46 goals scored and 12 conceded, the best attack in the league. At home they have taken 15 points from six games, away 15 from five. Both teams have scored in seven of their 11 games; they have four clean sheets. Last time out they beat Alavés 6-1 at home, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Barcelona 48% and Atlético Madrid 30%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 and 2-1 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 62%, both teams to score at 63%; a clean sheet for Barcelona is rated at 25%.
Our prediction
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Barcelona win or draw
70% estimated probability
X2, Barcelona win or draw, is rated at 70%: the model gives 48% to a win for the visitors and 23% to the draw, with 1.8 goals expected against 1.4.
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Total goals 1-3, from 1 to 3 goals in total, is at 56%: the model expects 3.2 goals and Atlético Madrid have conceded only 8 goals in 11 games.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Under 2.5, at most 2 goals in total, is at 38%: the boldest pick, with six clean sheets in 11 games for Atlético Madrid.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.