La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sat 7 Nov · 16:15 (Italian time)
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruña: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Espanyol, 14th on 11 points, host Deportivo La Coruña, 8th on 14, on Saturday at 16:15 (Italian time) in a mid-table game. The hosts come off a 1-0 win at Villarreal; the visitors beat Osasuna 2-1 at home but have never kept a clean sheet in 11 games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeEspanyol | AwayDeportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th11 points | 8th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–6 | 3–5–3 |
| Goals for–against | 13–141.2–1.3 per match | 15–141.4–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 5 matches | 9in 6 matches |
| Points away | 7in 6 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 11 | 0 of 11 |
The analysis
Espanyol: both teams scored in seven of 11 games
Espanyol have three wins, two draws and six defeats, with 13 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from five games, away 7 from six. Six of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they won 1-0 at Villarreal, and in their last five games they have won one and lost three.
Deportivo La Coruña: both teams scored in nine of 11 games
Deportivo La Coruña have three wins, five draws and three defeats, with 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from six games, away 5 from five. Both teams have scored in nine of their 11 games and four have had at least three goals; they have never kept a clean sheet. Last time out they beat Osasuna 2-1 at home, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Espanyol 41% and Deportivo La Coruña 32%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-1 (10%) and 0-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 57%, both teams to score at 49%; a clean sheet for Espanyol is rated at 33%.
Our prediction
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruña · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
78% estimated probability
Under 3.5, at most 3 goals in total, is rated at 78%: the model expects 2.4 goals and only four of Deportivo La Coruña’s 11 games have had at least three goals.
X2
Deportivo La Coruña win or draw
59% estimated probability
X2, Deportivo La Coruña win or draw, is at 59%: the model gives 32% to a win and 27% to the draw, and they have taken 5 points from five away games.
X2 & Under 2.5
Deportivo La Coruña avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
37% estimated probability
X2 & Under 2.5 (Deportivo La Coruña avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total) is at 37%: the model expects 1.3 goals from Espanyol and 1.1 from the visitors.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.