La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sat 7 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Osasuna, 15th on 11 points, host Athletic Bilbao, 7th on 15, on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-1 defeat at Deportivo La Coruña and have conceded 22 goals in 11 games; the visitors beat Real Sociedad 2-1 and have kept five clean sheets.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeOsasuna | AwayAthletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th11 points | 7th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–6 | 4–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 11–221.0–2.0 per match | 14–101.4–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 8in 5 matches | 11in 6 matches |
| Points away | 3in 6 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 11 | 5 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 11 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 11 | 5 of 10 |
The analysis
Osasuna: 22 goals conceded in 11 games
Osasuna have three wins, two draws and six defeats, with 11 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have taken 8 points from five games, away 3 from six. Five of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Deportivo La Coruña, and in their last five games they have won one and lost three.
Athletic Bilbao: five clean sheets in ten games
Athletic Bilbao have four wins, three draws and three defeats, with 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 11 points from six games, away 4 from four. Five of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have five clean sheets. Last time out they beat Real Sociedad 2-1 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Athletic Bilbao 49% and Osasuna 26%, with the draw at 26% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 0-1 (12%) and 1-2 and 0-2 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 50%; a clean sheet for Athletic Bilbao is rated at 36%.
Our prediction
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Athletic Bilbao win or draw
74% estimated probability
X2, Athletic Bilbao win or draw, is rated at 74%: the model gives 49% to a win and 26% to the draw, and Osasuna have conceded 22 in 11 games.
X2 & Under 3.5
Athletic Bilbao avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
X2 & Under 3.5 (Athletic Bilbao avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 55%: the model expects 2.5 goals, 1.5 of them from the visitors.
Athletic Bilbao clean sheet
Athletic Bilbao do not concede
36% estimated probability
Athletic Bilbao clean sheet, Athletic Bilbao do not concede, is at 36%: the boldest pick, with five clean sheets in ten games and 1.0 goals expected for Osasuna.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.