La Liga · Matchday 12 · Fri 6 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Sevilla vs Alavés: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sevilla, 6th on 17 points, host Alavés, 11th on 12, on Friday at 21:00 (Italian time) in a game between sides chasing consistency. The hosts come off a 3-1 defeat at Getafe; the visitors were beaten 6-1 at Barcelona and have taken just 2 points from five away games. A game with goals is in prospect.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSevilla | AwayAlavés |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th17 points | 11th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–2–4 | 3–3–5 |
| Goals for–against | 17–191.5–1.7 per match | 15–171.4–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 5 matches | 10in 6 matches |
| Points away | 8in 6 matches | 2in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 11 | 6 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 11 | 7 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 11 | 3 of 11 |
The analysis
Sevilla: both teams scored in eight of 11 games
Sevilla have five wins, two draws and four defeats, with 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from five games, away 8 from six. Seven of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 3-1 at Getafe, and in their last five games they have won once and lost three.
Alavés: 2 points from five away games
Alavés have three wins, three draws and five defeats, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from six games, away just 2 from five. Six of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 6-1 at Barcelona.
What to expect
The model gives Sevilla 48% and Alavés 28%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 and 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 58%; a clean sheet for Sevilla is rated at 29%.
Our prediction
Sevilla vs Alavés · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
73% estimated probability
Over 0.5 first half, at least one goal in the first half, is rated at 73%: the model expects 2.9 goals in total and Sevilla have had seven of 11 games with at least three goals.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Over 2.5, at least 3 goals in total, is at 56%: the model expects 2.9 goals and both teams have scored in seven of Alavés’s 11 games.
1 & Over 1.5
Sevilla win and at least 2 goals in total
39% estimated probability
1 & Over 1.5 (a Sevilla win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 39%: the model gives the hosts 48%, with 1.7 goals expected against 1.2 for Alavés.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.