La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sat 7 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Valencia vs Real Madrid: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Valencia, 19th on 9 points, host Real Madrid, 3rd on 27, on Saturday at 21:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 1-0 win at Elche and have taken 2 points from six home games; the visitors won 3-0 at Racing Santander and have the second-best attack in the league, with 28 goals.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeValencia | AwayReal Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th9 points | 3rd27 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–6 | 9–0–2 |
| Goals for–against | 8–170.7–1.5 per match | 28–102.5–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 6 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Points away | 7in 5 matches | 12in 6 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 11 | 7 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 11 | 3 of 11 |
The analysis
Valencia: 2 points from six home games
Valencia have two wins, three draws and six defeats, with 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have taken 2 points from six games, away 7 from five. Five of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four. Last time out they won 1-0 at Elche, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two.
Real Madrid: 12 points from six away games
Real Madrid have nine wins and two defeats, with 28 goals scored and 10 conceded, the second-best attack in the league. At home they have taken 15 points from five games, away 12 from six. Nine of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they won 3-0 at Racing Santander, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Real Madrid 70% and Valencia 11%, with the draw at 19% and 2.0 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 0-2 and 0-1 (14%) and 0-3 and 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 51%, both teams to score at 42%; a clean sheet for Real Madrid is rated at 51%.
Our prediction
Valencia vs Real Madrid · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Over 1.5, at least 2 goals in total, is rated at 75%: the model expects 2.7 goals, 2.0 of them from Real Madrid, who have finished nine of 11 games with at least three goals.
2 & Over 1.5
Real Madrid win and at least 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
2 & Over 1.5 (a Real Madrid win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 56%: the model gives 70% to a win for the visitors.
Real Madrid win by 2+ goals
Real Madrid win by at least two goals
44% estimated probability
Real Madrid win by 2+ goals is at 44%: the boldest pick, with 0.7 goals expected for Valencia and 2.0 for the visitors.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.