La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sat 7 Nov · 14:00 (Italian time)
Málaga vs Racing Santander: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Málaga, 20th on 5 points and still without a win, host Racing Santander, 16th on 11 and with the most-beaten defence in the league, on Saturday at 14:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-1 defeat at Real Betis; the visitors lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid and have yet to take a point away from home.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMálaga | AwayRacing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th5 points | 16th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–5–6 | 3–2–6 |
| Goals for–against | 8–210.7–1.9 per match | 15–291.4–2.6 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 5 matches | 11in 6 matches |
| Points away | 2in 6 matches | 0in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 11 | 7 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 11 | 0 of 11 |
The analysis
Málaga: no wins in 11 games
Málaga have yet to win: five draws and six defeats, with 8 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from five games, away 2 from six. Four of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Real Betis, and in their last five games they have drawn two and lost three.
Racing Santander: no points from five away games
Racing Santander have three wins, two draws and six defeats, with 15 goals scored and 29 conceded: the most-beaten defence in the league. At home they have taken 11 points from six games, away none from five. Nine of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have never kept a clean sheet. Last time out they lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid.
What to expect
The model gives Málaga 41% and Racing Santander 35%, with the draw at 25% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 and 1-2 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 59%; a clean sheet for Málaga is rated at 25%.
Our prediction
Málaga vs Racing Santander · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Racing Santander to score
At least one goal for Racing Santander
75% estimated probability
Racing Santander to score, at least one goal for the visitors, is rated at 75%: the model expects 1.4 goals from them and Málaga have conceded 21 in 11 games.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Over 2.5, at least 3 goals in total, is at 56%: the model expects 2.9 goals and Racing Santander have finished nine of 11 games with at least three goals.
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
38% estimated probability
Over 1.5 first half, at least 2 goals in the first half, is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 2.9 goals expected in total and both teams to score at 59%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.