La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun 8 Nov · 16:15 (Italian time)
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Real Sociedad, 5th on 19 points, host Rayo Vallecano, 12th on 12, on Sunday at 16:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-1 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, the visitors a 3-0 home win over Celta Vigo. Rayo Vallecano have taken 2 points from five away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeReal Sociedad | AwayRayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th19 points | 12th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–1–4 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 20–201.8–1.8 per match | 15–201.5–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 5 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 9in 6 matches | 2in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 9 of 11 | 7 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 11 | 8 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 11 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Real Sociedad: nine of 11 games with more than two goals
Real Sociedad have six wins, one draw and four defeats, with 20 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away 9 from six. Nine of their 11 games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in eight; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Athletic Bilbao, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
Rayo Vallecano: 2 points from five away games
Rayo Vallecano have three wins, three draws and four defeats, with 15 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away 2 from five. Seven of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they beat Celta Vigo 3-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Real Sociedad 56% and Rayo Vallecano 23%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 and 1-0 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 67%, both teams to score at 64%; a clean sheet for Real Sociedad is rated at 27%.
Our prediction
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Total goals 2-5, from 2 to 5 goals in total, is rated at 72%: the model expects 3.4 goals and Real Sociedad have finished nine of 11 games with more than two goals.
Over 1.5 second half
At least 2 goals in the second half
57% estimated probability
Over 1.5 second half, at least 2 goals in the second half, is at 57%: the model expects 3.4 goals in total, 2.1 of them from Real Sociedad.
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
Rayo Vallecano score at least twice
38% estimated probability
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals, Rayo Vallecano score at least twice, is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 1.3 goals expected for the visitors and 15 goals scored in ten games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.