La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun 8 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Villarreal vs Getafe: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Villarreal, 9th on 12 points, host Getafe, 13th on 12, on Sunday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 1-0 home defeat to Espanyol, the visitors a 3-1 home win over Sevilla. Getafe have taken no points from five away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeVillarreal | AwayGetafe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th12 points | 13th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–5 | 3–3–5 |
| Goals for–against | 15–151.4–1.4 per match | 8–160.7–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 5 matches | 12in 6 matches |
| Points away | 8in 6 matches | 0in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 11 | 2 of 11 |
The analysis
Villarreal: 4 points from five home games
Villarreal have three wins, three draws and five defeats, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from five games, away 8 from six. Seven of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 1-0 at home to Espanyol, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
Getafe: no points from five away games
Getafe have three wins, three draws and five defeats, with 8 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 12 points from six games, away none from five. Four of their 11 games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they beat Sevilla 3-1 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Villarreal 60% and Getafe 16%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%) and 0-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 58%, both teams to score at 42%; a clean sheet for Villarreal is rated at 49%.
Our prediction
Villarreal vs Getafe · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
12
No draw
76% estimated probability
12, no draw, is rated at 76%: the model gives 24% to the draw, with 1.7 goals expected for Villarreal against 0.7.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
58% estimated probability
Both teams to score: no, at least one team fails to score, is at 58%: the model gives 42% to both teams scoring and Getafe have scored 8 goals in 11 games.
Villarreal win to nil
Villarreal win without conceding
39% estimated probability
1 & NoGol (a Villarreal win without conceding) is at 39%: the boldest pick, with 60% for a Villarreal win and 49% for their clean sheet.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.