Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Angers vs Marseille: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Marseille won again after four straight defeats, 2-0 in Troyes, but they are thirteenth on 6 points. In Angers they face a side one point better off, coming off a 5-1 thrashing in Brest.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAngers | AwayMarseille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th7 points | 13th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–3 | 2–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 7–101.2–1.7 per match | 9–81.5–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Angers: one home win in three
Two wins, a draw and three defeats, 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. Angers have taken more points away, 4, than at home, 3. They have kept two clean sheets, but conceded five in Brest.
Marseille: the win they needed
Two wins and four defeats, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded: their goal difference is positive despite the table. After four straight defeats, the 2-0 in Troyes brought three points and their second clean sheet of the season.
What to expect
The model gives Marseille 42% and Angers 32%, with 1.5 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 0-1 and 1-2 (9%). Over 1.5 at 76%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our prediction
Angers vs Marseille · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
76% estimated probability
Angers have conceded 10 goals in six games, five of them in the last one. The model expects 2.8 goals in total: two are enough.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Angers have lost two of three at home and Marseille have kept a clean sheet in only two of six. Both teams scoring is rated at 56%.
X2 & both teams score
Marseille avoid defeat and both teams score
40% estimated probability
Marseille have the better goal difference and the model has them ahead, 42% to 32%. To Marseille avoiding defeat we add both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.