Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 17:15 CEST
Le Havre vs Auxerre: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
A relegation-zone clash. Le Havre are eighteenth on 2 points and still without a win; Auxerre, sixteenth on 6, have taken all their points at home and lost all three away games, most recently 4-1 in Rennes.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLe Havre | AwayAuxerre |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th2 points | 16th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–2–4 | 2–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 4–80.7–1.3 per match | 8–161.3–2.7 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 1in 3 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Le Havre: still without a win
Two draws and four defeats, 4 goals scored, the weakest attack in the league together with Troyes, and 8 conceded. They have taken one point at home and one away; last time out they lost 1-0 in Lille.
Auxerre: no points away from home
Two wins and four defeats, 8 goals scored and 16 conceded, the leakiest defence in Ligue 1. Away from home Auxerre have lost all three games. Five of their six games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Le Havre 44% and Auxerre 31%, with 1.5 expected goals to 1.2: Auxerre’s defence, which concedes almost three a game, weighs heavily. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%). Both teams to score is at 56%.
Our prediction
Le Havre vs Auxerre · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Le Havre win or draw
69% estimated probability
Auxerre have lost all three away games and have the leakiest defence in the league.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of Auxerre’s six games, and Le Havre have kept just one clean sheet.
1 & Over 1.5
Le Havre win and at least 2 goals in total
34% estimated probability
A first Le Havre win is the boldest pick: Auxerre concede a lot away from home, but Le Havre score less than a goal a game. We ask for a home win with at least two goals in the game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.