Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Fri 16 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Le Mans vs Toulouse: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Ligue 1 opens matchday 7 on Friday night with a meeting of two teams on 6 points. Le Mans, newly promoted, come off a 3-1 defeat to PSG in Paris; Toulouse off a 2-2 at leaders Monaco.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLe Mans | AwayToulouse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th6 points | 15th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–3–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Goals for–against | 10–121.7–2.0 per match | 9–111.5–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 1in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Le Mans: both teams always score
One win, three draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Both teams have scored in every Le Mans game and five of six have produced at least three goals. They are unbeaten at home: one win and two draws.
Toulouse: no clean sheets yet
One win, three draws and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. Toulouse have never kept a clean sheet and have taken 3 points at home and 3 away. Last time out they grabbed a 2-2 draw at Monaco.
What to expect
The model gives Le Mans 41% and Toulouse 37%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.6. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 2-1 and 1-2 (8%). Neither side has kept a clean sheet: both teams to score at 66%, Over 2.5 at 65%.
Our prediction
Le Mans vs Toulouse · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
66% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in every Le Mans game, and Toulouse have never kept a clean sheet.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Five of Le Mans’ six games have gone over 2.5 goals. To both teams scoring we add the third goal.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
43% estimated probability
Two defences that have conceded 23 goals in twelve games, without a single clean sheet. Four goals is the boldest pick: the model expects 3.4.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.