Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 17:15 CEST
Paris FC vs Rennes: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Paris FC are fifth on 11 points and still unbeaten at home; Rennes, third on 13, share the best attack in Ligue 1 with Brest and come off a 4-1 win over Auxerre.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeParis FC | AwayRennes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th11 points | 3rd13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–1 | 4–1–1 |
| Goals for–against | 8–41.3–0.7 per match | 12–102.0–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 3in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Paris FC: unbeaten at home
Three wins, two draws and a defeat, 8 goals scored and 4 conceded: with Lille and Lyon, the best defence in the league. At home they have taken 7 points from three games and in all they have kept three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 1-0 in Lorient.
Rennes: lots of goals at both ends
Four wins, a draw and a defeat, 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. Rennes have played only two away games, with one win and one defeat. Five of their six games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Paris FC 47% and Rennes 28%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Over 1.5 at 76%: Rennes’ games almost always have lots of goals, Paris FC’s few.
Our prediction
Paris FC vs Rennes · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
76% estimated probability
Five of Rennes’ six games have had at least three goals and Rennes have conceded 10. Two in total are enough.
1X & Over 1.5
Paris FC avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
55% estimated probability
Paris FC are unbeaten at home. To the home side avoiding defeat we add at least two goals, as in almost all of Rennes’ games.
1
Paris FC win
47% estimated probability
The model gives Paris FC 47% against 28% for Rennes, who have played only two away games. A home win is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.