Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Troyes vs Lens: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Troyes, newly promoted, have lost their last four and are seventeenth on 4 points. Lens, tenth on 7, come off a 2-1 win over Lyon, but are still without an away win.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTroyes | AwayLens |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th4 points | 10th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–4 | 2–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 4–130.7–2.2 per match | 11–101.8–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Troyes: four defeats in a row
One win, a draw and four defeats, 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. After a draw and a win in the first two rounds they have lost four in a row, most recently 2-0 at home to Marseille. At home they have taken one point from three games.
Lens: strong at home, still winless away
Two wins, a draw and three defeats, 11 goals scored and 10 conceded, with no clean sheets. Both wins came at home; away from home Lens have taken one point from three games. Five of their six games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Lens 54% and Troyes 24%, with 1.8 expected goals to 1.2: Troyes’ defence, which has conceded more than two a game, weighs heavily. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 and 0-2 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 58%.
Our prediction
Troyes vs Lens · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Lens win or draw
76% estimated probability
Troyes have lost their last four and taken one point from three home games. Lens have not won away yet, but the model rates their chance of defeat at only 24%.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
58% estimated probability
Five of Lens’ six games have gone over 2.5 goals and Troyes have conceded 13 in six rounds.
2 & Over 2.5
Lens win and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
A first Lens away win is the boldest pick: if it comes against this defence, it will probably come in a game with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.