Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Lille vs Brest: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Lille are second on 13 points and have the best defence in Ligue 1 together with Lyon and Paris FC, 4 goals conceded. They host Brest, seventh on 8, who come off a 5-1 win over Angers and have the best attack in the league with 12 goals, level with Rennes.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLille | AwayBrest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd13 points | 7th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–1 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–41.5–0.7 per match | 12–92.0–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Points away | 6in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Lille: four clean sheets
Four wins, a draw and a defeat, 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. Lille have kept four clean sheets in six games, the latest in the 1-0 against Le Havre, and only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. At home they have taken 7 points from three games.
Brest: best attack, no clean sheets
Two wins, two draws and two defeats, 12 goals scored and 9 conceded. Brest score two goals a game but have never kept a clean sheet, and five of their six games have produced at least three goals. Away from home they have taken 4 points from three games.
What to expect
The model gives Lille 52% and Brest 24%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 1-0 (11%), then 2-1 (10%). Two opposite styles meet: Lille’s games almost always have few goals, Brest’s almost never. The model sits in the middle, with Over 2.5 at 52%.
Our prediction
Lille vs Brest · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Lille win or draw
76% estimated probability
Lille have lost only once and have taken 7 points out of 9 at home. They have conceded 4 goals in six rounds.
Lille 2+ goals
Lille score at least twice
50% estimated probability
Brest have never kept a clean sheet and have conceded 9 goals. The model gives Lille 1.7 expected goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Lille win and at least 3 goals in total
32% estimated probability
Five of Brest’s six games have gone over 2.5 goals. If Lille beat this attack, a 1-0 will probably not be enough.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.