Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Lyon vs Nice: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Ligue 1’s Sunday ends at the Groupama Stadium. Lyon are fourth on 11 points and come off their first defeat of the season, 2-1 in Lens; Nice, ninth on 8, have won their last two but have lost both away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLyon | AwayNice |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th11 points | 9th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–1 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 11–41.8–0.7 per match | 5–70.8–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Lyon: the best defence, with Lille and Paris FC
Three wins, two draws and a defeat, 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Lyon have kept three clean sheets in six games and taken 7 points from three at home. The defeat in Lens was their first of the season.
Nice: all their points at home
Two wins, two draws and two defeats, 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. All of Nice’s 8 points have come at home; they lost both away games. They score little, less than a goal a game, and have kept just one clean sheet. Last time out they beat Strasbourg 2-1.
What to expect
The model gives Lyon 59% and Nice 17%, with 1.7 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (11%), and a Lyon clean sheet is rated at 47%. Nice have scored 5 goals in six games: “both teams to score: no” is at 57%.
Our prediction
Lyon vs Nice · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Lyon have conceded 4 goals in six games and Nice have scored 5. Four goals in this game would be an exception.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
57% estimated probability
Nice score less than a goal a game and Lyon have kept a clean sheet in half their games. One of the two only has to draw a blank.
Lyon win to nil
Lyon win without conceding
38% estimated probability
Nice have lost both away games and Lyon have taken 7 points out of 9 at home. We ask for a Lyon win without conceding: the most likely score is exactly 1-0.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.