Serie A · Matchday 10 · Mon 2 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Atalanta vs Parma: preview and prediction
Preview
At the New Balance Arena, Atalanta look to their home form for a lift: 10 of their 11 points have come in front of their own fans. Opposite them are a struggling Parma, second from bottom on 5 points and with the worst attack in the league. Atalanta start as favourites, but they have a crowded treatment room: Bellanova, Hien, Kessié and Scamacca are among those missing.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAtalanta | AwayParma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th11 points | 19th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–4 | 1–2–6 |
| Goals for–against | 16–171.8–1.9 per match | 5–150.6–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 5 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 0in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Atalanta: 10 of 11 points won at home
At home they are a different team: 10 points from five games, against just 1 from four away. The 2-2 draw at Fiorentina extended an unspectacular run, but Atalanta games are rarely dull: seven of nine have had at least three goals. Bellanova, Gaetano, Hien, Kessié, Kossounou, Kristensen, Pompei and Scamacca are out, however; Kolasinac and Raspadori are doubtful.
Parma: the worst attack, no points away
Parma struggle above all up front: 5 goals in nine games is the lowest total in the league. Away from home they have yet to take a point in four attempts, and the 0-0 draw with Udinese barely moved the table. This looks an uphill trip, with Elphege doubtful after appendix surgery.
What to expect
The model gives Atalanta 63% and Parma 16%, with the draw at 21% and 1.9 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 and 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 49%; a clean sheet for Atalanta is rated at 43%. Krstović has a 46% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Éderson follows at 25%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Atalanta vs Parma · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Seven of Atalanta’s nine games have had at least three goals and the model expects 2.8 in total: 77% for at least 2 goals is the firmest starting point.
Came true
Atalanta 2+ goals
Atalanta score at least twice
58% estimated probability
The model expects 1.9 goals from Atalanta and gives 58% to them scoring at least two goals. They have found their rhythm at home, and Parma have conceded 15.
Did not come true
Atalanta win by 2+ goals
Atalanta win by at least two goals
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs an Atalanta win by at least two goals, at 38%. Parma, without an away point and with the worst attack in the league, leave that route open.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Atalanta clean sheet
- 43%
- Parma clean sheet
- 14%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.