Serie A · Matchday 10 · Mon 2 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: preview and prediction
Preview
The Mapei Stadium hosts an important game in the relegation fight. Sassuolo, 15th on 8 points, must forget a 6-2 defeat by Lazio; Fiorentina are 18th on 5 and the 2-2 draw with Atalanta brought only slight relief. Two defences in real trouble promise goals, with Sassuolo without the suspended Thorstvedt and Fiorentina without Parisi and Pongracic.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSassuolo | AwayFiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th8 points | 18th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–5 | 1–2–6 |
| Goals for–against | 14–221.6–2.4 per match | 11–211.2–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 2in 5 matches |
| Points away | 1in 5 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 |
The analysis
Sassuolo: no clean sheets in nine games
Sassuolo are living two seasons in one: 7 points from four home games and just 1 from five away. The 6-2 defeat by Lazio deepened the problems of a defence that has already conceded 22 and has yet to keep a clean sheet. Thorstvedt is suspended; Ibrahim Koné, Idzes and Leysen are out, Boloca is doubtful.
Fiorentina: eight games of nine with at least three goals
Fiorentina cannot get out of the danger zone: just one win and 21 goals conceded in nine games. The 2-2 draw with Atalanta brought a point, but they have never kept a clean sheet. Parisi and Pongracic are out, Atta and Ranieri doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Sassuolo 43% and Fiorentina 34%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.6. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 68%, both teams to score at 68%; a clean sheet for Sassuolo is rated at 19%. Berardi has a 34% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mastantuono follows at 30%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Neither Sassuolo nor Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet and the model expects 3.5 goals: 72% goes to a game with 2 to 5 goals.
Did not come true
Sassuolo 2+ goals
Sassuolo score at least twice
55% estimated probability
Fiorentina have conceded 21 goals and the model expects 1.9 from Sassuolo: 55% goes to them scoring at least two goals.
Came true
1 & Over 1.5
Sassuolo win and at least 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs a Sassuolo win with at least 2 goals in total, at 38%. They have taken 7 points from four home games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Sassuolo clean sheet
- 19%
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 16%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.