Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sat 31 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Milan vs Inter: preview and prediction
Preview
San Siro stages derby night. Inter arrive as leaders with 25 points, the best attack in the league and no defeats. Milan, 5th on 18, want to make up for a 4-2 defeat by Bologna and close in on the top places. Both have heavy absences, from Tomori and Gabbia for Milan to Lautaro Martínez for Inter, but all the ingredients for a great evening are there.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMilan | AwayInter |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th18 points | 1st25 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–3–1 | 8–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 18–112.0–1.2 per match | 25–102.8–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 4 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Points away | 9in 5 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Milan: just one defeat, but it is the latest
Milan reach the derby with a fresh wound: the 4-2 loss to Bologna is their only defeat in nine games. Their run remains good, with five wins and 18 goals scored, and Rabiot already has 4. The absences of Chukwueze, Gabbia, Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers, Terracciano and Tomori weigh heavily, however.
Inter: unbeaten leaders with the best attack
Inter are moving at a leaders’ pace: eight wins, a draw, no defeats and 25 goals scored. The 2-0 win at Venezia was yet another confirmation. The derby finds them without Lautaro Martínez, Jones, Luis Henrique and Pavard, however, with Dimarco and Stones doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Inter 45% and Milan 32%, with the draw at 23% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 and 0-1 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 61%, both teams to score at 63%; a clean sheet for Inter is rated at 24%. Thuram has a 30% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Ramos follows at 25%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Milan vs Inter · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Milan to score
At least one goal for Milan
76% estimated probability
Milan have scored 18 goals and Inter have conceded 10: the model expects 1.4 from Milan and gives 76% to at least one.
Came true
1X
Milan win or draw
55% estimated probability
Inter are favourites at 45%, but the derby often ignores hierarchies: the model gives 55% to Milan avoiding defeat.
Came true
1X & both teams score
Milan avoid defeat and both teams score
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs Milan to avoid defeat with goals at both ends, at 38%. The model puts both teams scoring at 63% and the total at 3.2.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Milan clean sheet
- 18%
- Inter clean sheet
- 24%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.