Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sun 1 Nov · 12:30 (Italian time)
Como vs Venezia: preview and prediction
Preview
Sunday’s lunchtime game pits two teams at opposite ends of the table. At the Sinigaglia, Como, 4th on 20 points after a 3-1 win at Torino, want to keep their fine run going. Venezia are bottom on 3 points and come off a 2-0 defeat by Inter: everything points towards Como, who must however do without Kean, Diao, Addai and Jesús Rodríguez.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeComo | AwayVenezia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th20 points | 20th3 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–2–1 | 1–0–8 |
| Goals for–against | 17–81.9–0.9 per match | 6–190.7–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Points away | 13in 6 matches | 0in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Como: just one defeat in nine games
Como are enjoying a leading role so far: six wins and only one defeat, with 8 goals conceded. Curiously they have done more on the road, with 13 points from six away games, but the 3-1 win at Torino confirms their form. Douvikas already has 5 goals and will need to deliver, as Addai, Diao, Jesús Rodríguez and Kean are out; Chalobah and Liberali are doubtful.
Venezia: eight defeats in nine games
One win and eight defeats tell the story of an uphill season. Venezia have taken 3 points at home and none from four away games, and the 2-0 defeat by Inter gave no sign of a turnaround. Adorante and Franjic are out; Helgason, Mazzocchi, Correia and Sverko are doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Como 75% and Venezia 8%, with the draw at 17% and 2.3 expected goals to 0.6. The most likely scores are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 42%; a clean sheet for Como is rated at 54%. Douvikas has a 46% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Paz follows at 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Como vs Venezia · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Como win
75% estimated probability
Como have lost once, Venezia eight times: that is the gap. The model gives 75% to a home win.
Came true
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model expects 2.3 goals from Como and 2.9 in total, and gives 55% to at least 3 goals. Venezia have conceded 19 and struggle to keep games tight.
Did not come true
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick looks for a fast start: at least 2 goals in the first half, at 37%. If Como score early, the game could be settled soon.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Como clean sheet
- 54%
- Venezia clean sheet
- 10%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.