Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sun 1 Nov · 18:00 (Italian time)
Lecce vs Genoa: preview and prediction
Preview
The Via del Mare hosts two teams close in the table but in opposite moods. Lecce, 14th on 9 points, must absorb a heavy 5-1 defeat at Frosinone. Genoa, 13th on 10, arrive buoyed by a 2-0 win over Juventus. Lecce will be without the suspended Gaspar and several injured players: fear of defeat could weigh heavily and make this a very tight game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLecce | AwayGenoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th9 points | 13th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–6 | 3–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 10–191.1–2.1 per match | 8–130.9–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 10in 6 matches |
| Points away | 6in 5 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Lecce: four defeats in the last five
Lecce are at a delicate moment: four defeats in the last five, the latest a 5-1 loss at Frosinone, and 19 goals conceded. At home they have taken just 3 points from four games. Gaspar is suspended; Coulibaly, Geubbels, Ilic and Pierotti are out and Berisha is doubtful.
Genoa: three wins in the last five
Genoa are on the rise: three wins in the last five, with the 2-0 win over Juventus as their calling card. The flip side is their away record, stuck on zero points from three games. Havel and Venturino are out, Drameh and Ellertsson doubtful, Ostigard one booking from a ban.
What to expect
The model gives Genoa 38% and Lecce 35%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 and 1-0 (10%) and 1-2 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 52%; a clean sheet for Genoa is rated at 29%. Osmajić has a 32% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Baldanzi follows at 21%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Lecce vs Genoa · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Genoa have scored 8 goals in nine games and only three of their matches have had at least three: the model gives 75% to no more than 3.
Came true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
53% estimated probability
Two modest attacks, with 1-1 the likeliest score at 13%: the model gives 53% to at most 2 goals.
Did not come true
X2 & Under 2.5
Genoa avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs Genoa to avoid defeat with at most 2 goals, at 37%. Form is on their side, although they have yet to take an away point.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Lecce clean sheet
- 27%
- Genoa clean sheet
- 29%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.