Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sat 31 Oct · 18:00 (Italian time)
Udinese vs Roma: preview and prediction
Preview
At the Bluenergy Stadium, Roma try to keep pace with the leaders. Roma, 3rd on 21 points and still unbeaten, come off a 4-2 win over Cagliari. Udinese are 17th on 5 points, and a 0-0 draw at Parma is not enough to erase a dark spell. Udinese start as underdogs, but Roma too must do without key players such as Dybala, Pellegrini, Manu Koné and Svilar.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeUdinese | AwayRoma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th5 points | 3rd21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–6 | 6–3–0 |
| Goals for–against | 9–181.0–2.0 per match | 23–82.6–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 5 matches | 13in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
The analysis
Udinese: 1 point from five home games
Home form is Udinese’s real problem: just 1 point from five games, against 4 taken away. The 0-0 draw at Parma ended a run of four defeats, but much more is needed. Alaba, Bayo and Gueye are out, Solet and Zanoli doubtful, Karlström one booking from a ban.
Roma: five clean sheets and no defeats
Roma have yet to lose: six wins, three draws, 23 goals scored and the second-best attack in the league. Malen already has 7 goals and the 4-2 win over Cagliari showed their attacking power. There are absences, though: Dybala, Manu Koné, Pellegrini and Svilar will miss out.
What to expect
The model gives Roma 65% and Udinese 15%, with the draw at 20% and 2.1 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 0-2 (11%), 0-1 and 1-2 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Roma is rated at 39%. Malen has a 45% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Soulé follows at 28%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Udinese vs Roma · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
75% estimated probability
Roma have the second-best attack in the league and the model expects 3.1 goals in total: 75% goes to at least one goal in the first half.
Came true
2 & Over 1.5
Roma win and at least 2 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model gives 65% to a Roma win and 55% to that result with at least 2 goals in total: Udinese have struggled at home all season.
Came true
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs at least 4 goals, at 37%. It would take Roma in full flow, with the 2.1 goals expected, and a response from the hosts.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Udinese clean sheet
- 12%
- Roma clean sheet
- 39%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.