Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Bologna vs Monza: preview and prediction
Preview
Bologna v Monza is played on Saturday at 15:00 (Italian time). Bologna are 11th on 11 points and come off a 4-2 win at Milan; Monza are 16th on 7 and lost 4-1 to Napoli. Enem, Holm and Piccoli are out for Bologna; Maye, Pessina and Ziolkowski for Monza.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBologna | AwayMonza |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th11 points | 16th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–4 | 2–1–6 |
| Goals for–against | 12–121.3–1.3 per match | 16–221.8–2.4 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 5 matches | 1in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Bologna: nine points from five away games, two at home
Three wins, two draws and four defeats, 12 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their form is split: 2 points from four home games, 9 from five away. They come off a 4-2 win at Milan. Enem, Holm and Piccoli are out; De Silvestri and Orsolini are doubtful.
Monza: eight games out of nine with at least three goals
Two wins, a draw and six defeats, 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from four games, away 1 from five. They come off a 4-1 defeat by Napoli. Eight of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight. Varela has scored 8 goals. Maye, Pessina and Ziolkowski are out; Ciurria and Folorunsho are doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Bologna 56% and Monza 23%, with the draw at 21% and 2.0 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 and 1-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 62%, both teams to score at 61%; a clean sheet for Bologna is rated at 30%. Varela has a 39% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mbangula follows at 38%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Bologna vs Monza · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
76% estimated probability
The model expects 3.2 goals in total and gives 76% to at least one goal in the first half. Eight of Monza’s nine games have had at least three goals.
Came true
1
Bologna win
56% estimated probability
The model gives 56% to a Bologna win against 23% for Monza, who have taken 1 point from five away games and conceded 22 goals.
Came true
Samuel Mbangula to score
Samuel Mbangula scores at least once
38% estimated probability
The model gives Samuel Mbangula a 38% chance of scoring, against a defence that has conceded 22 goals in nine games and kept just one clean sheet.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Bologna clean sheet
- 30%
- Monza clean sheet
- 13%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.