Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sun 1 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Frosinone vs Torino: preview and prediction
Preview
Surprise package Frosinone no longer want to hide. Torino visit the Stirpe, and Frosinone, 6th on 17 points with Torino 9th on 13, are in high spirits after a 5-1 win over Lecce. Torino must instead pick themselves up after a 3-1 defeat by Como. On paper this is an open, high-scoring game, with Frosinone without Grillitsch and Torino without Mandragora.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFrosinone | AwayTorino |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th17 points | 9th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–2–2 | 4–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 22–142.4–1.6 per match | 14–141.6–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 5 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Points away | 5in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Frosinone: 22 goals scored and Raimondo on 8
Frosinone are one of the stories of the season: five wins, 22 goals scored and 12 points from five home games. The 5-1 win over Lecce confirmed the strength of an attack led by Raimondo, already on 8 goals. The one sour note is the absence of Grillitsch, while Bracaglia is one booking from a ban.
Torino: both teams scored in seven games of nine
Torino play open games: both teams have scored in seven of nine and as many have had at least three goals. Away from home they have taken 7 points from four games, but the 3-1 defeat by Como ended a good run. Mandragora is out; Cacciamani, Fortini and Ricardo Rodríguez are doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Frosinone 52% and Torino 26%, with the draw at 22% and 2.0 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 and 1-0 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 66%, both teams to score at 65%; a clean sheet for Frosinone is rated at 25%. Raimondo has a 47% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Calò follows at 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Frosinone vs Torino · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Torino to score
At least one goal for Torino
75% estimated probability
Torino score regularly and Frosinone have conceded 14: the 75% for at least one Torino goal rests on those numbers.
Did not come true
Over 1.5 second half
At least 2 goals in the second half
55% estimated probability
The model expects 3.4 goals in total and gives 55% to at least 2 goals in the second half. With attacks like these, the game could catch fire after the break.
Came true
1 & Over 2.5
Frosinone win and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick combines a Frosinone win with at least 3 goals in total, at 38%. Frosinone have taken 12 points from five home games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Frosinone clean sheet
- 25%
- Torino clean sheet
- 13%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.