Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sun 1 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Juventus vs Napoli: preview and prediction
Preview
The Allianz Stadium hosts Sunday’s big late game, between two teams level on 14 points. Juventus must recover from a 2-0 defeat at Genoa, while Napoli arrive boosted by a 4-1 win at Monza. Both are depleted, however: Juventus lose Yildiz and Locatelli among others, Napoli Buongiorno and Lobotka. This looks a tense game, to be decided by details.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeJuventus | AwayNapoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th14 points | 7th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–3 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 11–101.2–1.1 per match | 17–111.9–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 5 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Juventus: four clean sheets and few goals
Juventus are building their season on solidity: four clean sheets and 10 goals conceded in nine games. They struggle in attack, however, with 11 goals, and the 2-0 defeat at Genoa made noise. The list of absentees is long: Celik, Conceição, Grabara, Khéphren Thuram, Locatelli, Nico González and Yildiz, with Ekhator doubtful.
Napoli: 17 goals scored, De Bruyne on 4
Napoli have found their answer to their problems in goals: 17 in nine games, and the 4-1 win at Monza confirms it. De Bruyne already has 4. They have taken 7 points away, but many are missing: Alisson Santos, Badiashile, Buongiorno, Favasuli, Lobotka, Neres and Spinazzola.
What to expect
The model gives Juventus 40% and Napoli 34%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 52%; a clean sheet for Juventus is rated at 30%. Kolo Muani has a 24% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; De Bruyne follows at 24%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Juventus vs Napoli · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Juventus to score
At least one goal for Juventus
74% estimated probability
The model expects 1.3 goals from Juventus and gives 74% to at least one: in front of their own fans, they should find a way to score.
Came true
Both teams to score
Both teams score
52% estimated probability
With Juventus at 40% and Napoli at 34%, the model sees a balanced game and gives 52% to both teams scoring.
Did not come true
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs goals from both sides and at least 3 in total, at 39%: an open game against expectations, given Juventus’s four clean sheets.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Juventus clean sheet
- 30%
- Napoli clean sheet
- 26%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.