Serie A · Matchday 10 · Sun 1 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Lazio vs Cagliari: preview and prediction
Preview
At the Olimpico, Lazio, winners of five in a row, host Cagliari. Lazio, 2nd on 25 points, have the best defence in the league and come off a 6-2 win at Sassuolo. Cagliari, 10th on 13, want a reaction after three straight defeats. On paper the outcome looks clear, although Lazio are without Gudmundsson and Cagliari without Felici and Idrissi.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLazio | AwayCagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd25 points | 10th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 8–1–0 | 4–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 22–72.4–0.8 per match | 8–130.9–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 15in 5 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Lazio: five wins in a row and the best defence
Lazio are among the most consistent sides in the league: eight wins, a draw and no defeats, with just 7 goals conceded. The 6-2 win at Sassuolo also showed their spectacular side. Gudmundsson is out, Marusic and Rovella are doubtful.
Cagliari: three defeats in a row after a draw
After a good start Cagliari have slowed, with three straight defeats and a 4-2 loss at Roma the latest. Away from home, though, they have held their own, with 9 points from five games, and Maldini already has 5 goals. Felici and Idrissi are out, Winks is doubtful and Deiola is one booking from a ban.
What to expect
The model gives Lazio 70% and Cagliari 11%, with the draw at 19% and 2.1 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 2-0 and 1-0 (13%) and 2-1 and 3-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 45%; a clean sheet for Lazio is rated at 49%. Noslin has a 33% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Zaccagni follows at 31%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Lazio vs Cagliari · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
69% estimated probability
Cagliari play low-scoring games, only three of nine with at least three goals: the model expects 2.8 and gives 69% to no more than 3.
Came true
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
55% estimated probability
Lazio have the best defence in the league and Cagliari have scored 8: the model gives 55% to not both teams scoring.
Did not come true
Not both score & Under 2.5
At least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick imagines a controlled game: not both teams scoring and at most 2 goals, at 38%. The likeliest scores are exactly 2-0 and 1-0.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Lazio clean sheet
- 49%
- Cagliari clean sheet
- 12%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.