Archive

Past rounds: the result of every game and how many of our predictions came true. Predictions are published before kick-off and never changed afterwards.

The round of 9-12 October

47 of 48 games played, 141 predictions assessed. Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao was postponed and its predictions do not count. Next to the actual share you will find the expected one, the average of the probabilities we published. The previews of this round were published in Italian only: the English version starts with the round of 16-19 October.

By level

Predictions that came true by level, round of 9-12 October
Level	Came true	Actual	Expected
Most likely47 predictions	39of 47	83%	76%
Balanced47 predictions	26of 47	55%	59%
Boldest47 predictions	15of 47	32%	40%
Total141 predictions	80of 141	57%	58%

The most likely predictions came true more often than expected (83% against 76%), the balanced and boldest ones a little less often (55% against 59% and 32% against 40%). Overall 57% against 58%: the estimates were close to reality. One round is a small sample, though: judging how well the probabilities are calibrated takes many rounds, and we will add them up here week after week.

By league

Predictions that came true by league, round of 9-12 October
League	Came true	Actual	Expected
Serie Amatchday 6	22of 30	73%	58%
Premier Leaguematchday 6	15of 30	50%	58%
La Ligamatchday 8	16of 27	59%	57%
Bundesligamatchday 5	12of 27	44%	58%
Ligue 1matchday 6	15of 27	56%	59%

Game by game

Tap a game to read the preview published before kick-off (in Italian).

Serie A · matchday 610–12 October22 of 30 · 73%, expected 58%

Serie A, matchday 6: result and predictions for each game
Game	Result	Most likely1st	Balanced2nd	Boldest3rd
Genoa – Fiorentina	2–1	came true: Over 1.5	came true: Both teams to score	came true: Both teams score & Over 2.5
Inter – Parma	3–0	came true: 1	came true: 1 & Over 2.5	did not come true: Lautaro Martínez scores & Inter win
Napoli – Frosinone	3–0	came true: 1X	did not come true: Under 2.5	came true: 1
Como – Roma	0–0	came true: X2	did not come true: X2 & Over 1.5	did not come true: Donyell Malen to score
Lazio – Monza	3–1	came true: 1X & Over 1.5	came true: 1	came true: 1 & Over 2.5
Lecce – Bologna	1–2	came true: Under 3.5	did not come true: Both teams to score: no	did not come true: X2 & not both score
Sassuolo – Milan	1–1	came true: X2	came true: Both teams to score	did not come true: 2 & Over 2.5
Cagliari – Juventus	1–1	came true: Cagliari under 1.5 goals	came true: Under 2.5	came true: X
Atalanta – Venezia	3–1	came true: Venezia under 1.5 goals	came true: Atalanta 2+ goals	came true: Atalanta win by 2+ goals
Torino – Udinese	2–1	came true: Over 0.5 first half	came true: Both teams to score	did not come true: X2 & both teams score

Premier League · matchday 610–12 October15 of 30 · 50%, expected 58%

Premier League, matchday 6: result and predictions for each game
Game	Result	Most likely1st	Balanced2nd	Boldest3rd
Arsenal – Leeds	2–1	came true: 1X	did not come true: Under 2.5	did not come true: Arsenal win to nil
Aston Villa – Brentford	2–2	came true: X2	did not come true: 2	did not come true: 2 & Over 1.5
Chelsea – Bournemouth	5–1	came true: Over 2.5	came true: Both teams score & Over 2.5	came true: 1 & Over 2.5
Ipswich Town – Fulham	2–1	came true: Over 1.5	came true: 1X	came true: 1
Sunderland – Brighton	0–2	came true: X2	came true: 2	did not come true: 2 & Over 2.5
Manchester United – Tottenham	1–1	came true: Tottenham under 1.5 goals	did not come true: 1	did not come true: Manchester United win to nil
Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest	3–1	did not come true: Under 3.5	did not come true: X2	did not come true: X2 & Under 2.5
Hull City – Everton	2–2	did not come true: Under 3.5	did not come true: Under 2.5	came true: X
Liverpool – Manchester City	0–3	came true: X2	came true: X2 & Over 1.5	came true: 2
Coventry City – Newcastle	4–1	did not come true: X2	did not come true: 2	did not come true: Newcastle win to nil

La Liga · matchday 89–12 October16 of 27 · 59%, expected 57%

La Liga, matchday 8: result and predictions for each game
Game	Result	Most likely1st	Balanced2nd	Boldest3rd
Málaga – Espanyol	1–1	came true: X2	did not come true: 2	did not come true: Espanyol win to nil
Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Bilbao	postponed	Over 1.5	Both teams to score	1X & both teams score
Alavés – Atlético Madrid	1–2	came true: X2	came true: Over 2.5	came true: 2
Barcelona – Getafe	3–0	came true: 1 & Over 1.5	came true: Barcelona win by 2+ goals	did not come true: Over 3.5
Real Madrid – Villarreal	1–0	did not come true: Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & both teams score
Elche – Celta Vigo	0–0	came true: X2	did not come true: Both teams to score	did not come true: X2 & both teams score
Real Sociedad – Deportivo La Coruña	3–2	came true: Over 1.5	came true: Both teams to score	did not come true: X2 & both teams score
Real Betis – Osasuna	5–2	came true: 1X	came true: 1	did not come true: Real Betis win to nil
Racing Santander – Valencia	2–2	came true: 1X	came true: Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & Over 2.5
Levante – Sevilla	3–3	came true: Over 1.5	came true: Both teams to score	came true: Both teams score & Over 2.5

Bundesliga · matchday 59–11 October12 of 27 · 44%, expected 58%

Bundesliga, matchday 5: result and predictions for each game
Game	Result	Most likely1st	Balanced2nd	Boldest3rd
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen	2–2	did not come true: 1	did not come true: 1 & Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & both teams score
Augsburg – Bayern Munich	2–2	came true: Over 2.5	did not come true: 2 & Over 2.5	did not come true: 2 & both teams score
Hoffenheim – Hamburg	2–3	came true: Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & both teams score
Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen	3–4	came true: Both teams to score	came true: Both teams score & Over 2.5	came true: Over 3.5
Paderborn – Stuttgart	0–2	came true: Over 1.5	did not come true: 1X	did not come true: 1
Union Berlin – Elversberg	1–0	did not come true: Over 2.5	did not come true: Elversberg 2+ goals	did not come true: 2 & Over 2.5
RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt	6–0	came true: Over 2.5	came true: 1 & Over 2.5	did not come true: 1 & both teams score
Cologne – Borussia Mönchengladbach	2–1	came true: Over 2.5	came true: 1	did not come true: Cologne win by 2+ goals
Freiburg – Schalke 04	2–1	came true: Schalke 04 under 1.5 goals	came true: 1 & Over 1.5	did not come true: Freiburg win to nil

Ligue 1 · matchday 69–11 October15 of 27 · 56%, expected 59%

Ligue 1, matchday 6: result and predictions for each game
Game	Result	Most likely1st	Balanced2nd	Boldest3rd
Lens – Lyon	2–1	did not come true: X2	did not come true: X2 & Over 1.5	did not come true: 2
Lille – Le Havre	1–0	came true: Under 3.5	came true: 1	came true: Lille win to nil
Brest – Angers	5–1	did not come true: Under 3.5	did not come true: X2	did not come true: X2 & Under 2.5
Lorient – Paris FC	1–0	came true: Under 3.5	came true: Under 2.5	did not come true: X2 & Under 2.5
Monaco – Toulouse	2–2	came true: 1X	did not come true: 1	did not come true: 1 & Over 2.5
PSG – Le Mans	3–1	came true: 1X & Over 1.5	came true: Both teams to score	came true: 1 & both teams score
Nice – Strasbourg	2–1	came true: Over 1.5	came true: Both teams to score	did not come true: X2 & both teams score
Rennes – Auxerre	4–1	came true: 1X	came true: 1	came true: 1 & Over 2.5
Troyes – Marseille	0–2	came true: Over 1.5	did not come true: Both teams to score	did not come true: Both teams score & Over 2.5

Coming up

Previews already online for games not played yet:

Serie A: matchday 7, 16–19 October
Premier League: matchday 7, 17–19 October
La Liga: matchday 9, 16–19 October
Bundesliga: matchday 6, 16–18 October
Ligue 1: matchday 7, 16–18 October

How we count the predictions

For each game we count the three predictions and keep them separate by level: most likely, balanced and boldest.
They are the predictions published before the game, with the date they were recorded. We do not change them afterwards, not even if the model, with new results, would give different numbers.
Next to the share of predictions that came true we show the expected share, the average of the probabilities we gave: if the two are close, the estimates are well calibrated.
A scorer who starts on the bench counts as a prediction that did not come true if he does not score. Postponed games do not count.
We only count whether the prediction came true. These are statistical estimates, not promises: past results do not guarantee future ones.

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